Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 192.258471 229.737739 274.921087 334.135366 410.793071 508.245156 6.440975e+02
2025-08-31 142.252339 184.238502 240.633484 324.202024 449.054272 636.056634 9.531158e+02
2025-09-07 124.366312 171.279714 239.846975 352.223528 542.305704 873.619549 1.557492e+03
2025-09-14 107.099637 154.061205 227.014173 355.957391 596.357902 1071.543065 2.241712e+03
2025-09-21 95.935015 143.223492 220.669285 367.103065 665.906829 1333.620990 3.313112e+03
2025-09-28 85.192143 130.885059 208.873145 364.528480 706.840266 1557.761867 4.558264e+03
2025-10-05 81.229453 128.955634 214.401819 396.244626 834.608106 2084.532656 7.705927e+03
2025-10-12 76.983138 125.726318 216.720561 421.852324 960.449808 2717.669159 1.301798e+04
2025-10-19 72.551090 121.414336 216.015827 440.506339 1078.138306 3449.052770 2.197533e+04
2025-10-26 68.070496 116.331346 212.768497 452.257382 1183.108878 4264.440132 3.713766e+04
2025-11-02 63.460731 110.368715 206.630181 455.171004 1263.081042 5088.121470 6.162231e+04
2025-11-09 58.438857 102.983105 196.256082 444.396074 1292.059068 5705.672795 9.394524e+04
2025-11-16 53.710762 95.856566 185.843302 432.348779 1317.172404 6401.451962 1.513554e+05
2025-11-23 49.503427 89.359670 175.970996 419.669826 1335.773987 7127.584491 2.524711e+05
2025-11-30 48.819411 90.121130 183.064637 459.084082 1600.971740 10510.803745 1.195430e+06
2025-12-07 46.287780 86.627848 179.387164 464.370586 1718.942104 13052.613389 4.960753e+06
2025-12-14 44.498425 84.552691 178.895543 480.085833 1905.256601 17341.574842 9.706303e+07
2025-12-21 41.999445 80.633416 173.142008 476.453699 1987.319086 20762.492632 7.234215e+11
2025-12-28 41.690277 81.635772 180.364464 521.389286 2405.533519 34059.222465 NaN
2026-01-04 40.960600 81.577086 184.756457 557.946674 2825.727522 54848.638790 NaN
2026-01-11 39.886651 80.582463 186.405322 584.726862 3221.155154 86058.235621 NaN
2026-01-18 38.560328 78.839841 185.658309 601.660170 3570.650100 130950.457487 NaN
2026-01-25 36.966893 76.288477 182.182181 605.866161 3821.017278 186797.229623 NaN